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E & OE
LYNDAL CURTIS
Scott, if I can start with you, the Liberal Party in Victoria ends the year on a high. You’ve seen off John Brumby, but your majority’s pretty slim in the State Parliament there. Are you offering them tips on how to stay happy and healthy?
SCOTT RYAN
I think the Victorian Liberal Party is happy for a very good reason, Lyndal. It looks like they’ve got 45 seats in the bag, as John Brumby conceded defeat last night. There are still a couple of seats being counted where the Labor lead has been narrowing over the last 24 hours to well under 200 votes.
LYNDAL CURTIS
So you think that majority’s enough?
SCOTT RYAN
I think that majority’s perfectly fine. Victoria’s had small majority governments before in the last 20 years, so I think Ted Baillieu’s leadership and the Coalition’s policy agenda will see Victoria well over the next four years.
LYNDAL CURTIS
Ed Husic, you must’ve looked at the result in Victoria with some trepidation. There are many people predicting that the result in New South Wales next March will be much worse for the Labor Party. Do you hold out any hopes that there’ll be anything other than a bloodbath there?
ED HUSIC
I think everyone in New South Wales knows it’s going to be exceptionally tough for Labor in 2011. We’re certainly going through a process and that’s being carried out by the New South Wales General Secretary really well, Sam Dastyari, in bringing in new talent. We’re going through that process, but we’re under no illusion – this is going to be an exceptionally tight battle next year.
SCOTT RYAN
Ed, does ‘new talent’ count as a new president after today’s events?
ED HUSIC
I think you guys are also … It looks like it’s open season on party presidents on both sides of the fence, Scott, so I’d be a bit more prudent in my interjections.
LYNDAL CURTIS
But neither of you gentlemen would like that sort of upheaval in state party branches when you’re preparing for an election, would you?
SCOTT RYAN
Well what we’ve seen in New South Wales, Lyndal, is just the ongoing soap opera. People are exiting to stage left as they abandon a ship that is sinking.
LYNDAL CURTIS
Ed Husic, you must at least be a little bit relieved that the problems with state presidents are happening on both sides.
ED HUSIC
Well I don’t know necessarily if I’d use that word. As someone who has worked with Bernie Riordan and I’ve known him for over ten years. Bernie demonstrated today his commitment to putting the party first. I certainly extend to him and salute him for the fact that he’s, as I said, done the right thing by the party and we can move forward on that front.
LYNDAL CURTIS
For both of you, state parties do have an impact on the federal scene. Scott Ryan, do you think it will make it harder for Julia Gillard’s reform agenda to have more Liberal state governments?
SCOTT RYAN
Well I think what we saw, even in Ted Baillieu’s press conference this afternoon Lyndal, is that the new government of Victoria is going to put Victoria’s interests first. They are going to expose the details of the health agreement that was only signed on Melbourne Cup Day, which is – I believe – the day before the writs were issued for the election. What we’re going to see, at least from a Victorian perspective – and hopefully in other states on the eastern seaboard in the coming twelve months – are governments that aren’t just going to kowtow to Canberra because they’ve got a Prime Minister of the same party.
LYNDAL CURTIS
Ed Husic, should state governments put the state before the national interest?
ED HUSIC
Well I think some of those comments that Scott made were just patently ridiculous. The fact of the matter was, if you were awake and watching what was happening in April, you saw the state governments going in there representing their interests quite vocally. At the end, we came up with a package in the national interest while balancing the interests of the states. I thought what was astounding or what clearly marked out the leaders yesterday is you had Julia Gillard talking in terms of, as Prime Minister, bringing the country together in terms of moving on on important reform and Ted Baillieu could take a leaf out of her book wanting to take a contrary position at the outset and challenging a number of aspects of national reform. I was surprised to hear Ted Baillieu saying that he was questioning the NBN and whether or not we should proceed with that until mobile coverage was sorted out in regional Australia. Is he seriously saying that we should put $43 billion of investment aside to fix up mobile networks which are quite separate in the reform process? Just amazing stuff.
SCOTT RYAN
Ed, all the new State Premier in Victoria said is that there are other issues that need to be looked at. He’s quite rightly taking a prudent approach to announcements made in the dying days of the Brumby Government. It was only last week where the Brumby Government decided to surreptitiously announce that it was going to allow the NBN to go on to every householder’s property unless they opted out. That was done in a way that didn’t get a lot of coverage during the state election campaign. All Ted Baillieu has said is that he’s going to put Victorian interests first. That applies to the health agreement, that applies to releasing the details of Labor’s secret desalination agreement, and it applies also to the decisions made with respect to the NBN.
ED HUSIC
Can I just pick up on this point? Scott, I’m happy to stand corrected on this, but you and I debated this issue when it was discussed in relation to Tasmania. I’m happy to argue that that is a great option and people can opt out if they don’t want to. So this has been discussed before.
LYNDAL CURTIS
If we could move on to some advice from the Reserve Bank Governor who’s raised the question of saving some of the proceeds from the mining boom to sticker away for a rainy day. He’s even raised the option, although in a qualified way, of some sort of stabilisation fund. Now neither of your parties at the federal level have talked about this sort of fund, but is it a good idea to stick some money in the bank in case we need it in the future?
SCOTT RYAN
Lyndal, the Coalition has a proud record of doing that. As well as establishing the Future Fund with the proceeds of the sale of Telstra, we did what saving for a rainy day at the government level is – building up budget surpluses. The first step to saving for a rainy day – which I believe is the way the Reserve Bank Governor’s comments have been described – is to stop running up massive debt and deficits. That’s what the Coalition is committed to – putting Australia back on a sustainable financial track.
LYNDAL CURTIS
Ed Husic, should the government set up a stabilisation fund or a fund in the Norwegian style to put money from the mining boom away for when it’s needed?
ED HUSIC
Here’s the headline stat – $3 billion surplus in 2012-13. The fastest fiscal consolidation since the 60s where we’ll see revenues pick up with economic activities. Where we’re seeing government save. We’ve already indicated our commitment to reining in spending in line with – as the economy grows – that we pare back stimulus. That’s happening, that’s being recorded. We are doing the right things that are necessary to put those savings in place. On top of that, we are pushing for the increase in the superannuation guarantee contribution to 12% and there is a huge pool of private savings that comes through in that.
SCOTT RYAN
Ed, that increase in superannuation levy that you’re talking about is not the government saving – which is what the Reserve Bank Governor was talking about – that’s forcing businesses to pay higher costs to employ workers. You constantly talk about this alleged $3 billion surplus in three years. That is nothing more than a promise. It’s not a surplus now – it’s not a surplus next year – and it’s not starting to pay back the debt that has been racked up. The government is not cutting spending, it’s increasing by $20 billion a year, roughly, over the forward estimates. You’ve only committed to a 2% growth in real spending – you have not committed to actually cutting spending. Despite the economy today, stimulus money is still rolling out over the next 12 and 18 months.
ED HUSIC
Well if you don’t want to acknowledge the mid-year economic forecasts, that’s your prerogative, but we’ve made it a statement of public record that we’ll be going into surplus in 2012-13…
SCOTT RYAN
It’s a promise…
ED HUSIC
We are doing that in two ways – through an economy that is growing from one of the worst economic situations in 75 years in terms of the Global Financial Crisis. We are stabilising spending. We’re paring that back in terms of the stimulus that has ensured that we have more people in jobs today and it’s the envy of most of the Western world as well when you look at the United States where they’ve got almost double the unemployment rate compared to what Australia’s got. There’d probably be more countries that want to be in our fiscal and economic situation than what they’re currently having to confront at the moment. But it’s up to you as to whether or not you want to ignore facts.
SCOTT RYAN
The truth is, Ed, the Labor Government is not promising to cut spending. It’s promising to grow it. It’s only saying it won’t grow it as fast as it otherwise might. There is still forecast growth in real terms in all the forward estimates.
LYNDAL CURTIS
Gentlemen there’s a very long way to run in this argument, but we thank you today for your time, very much.