Topics: Nielsen poll, western Sydney, Labor’s failures on education and health reform
Ashleigh Gillon: Hello, welcome to the program I’m Ashleigh Gillon. Just to let you know we are standing by to take you live to a news conference with the Opposition Leader Tony Abbott. We are going to be taking you to that just as soon as it begins, he will be speaking to journalists in just a few minutes. Stay with us for that. In the meantime, let’s look at the politics around today. We’ve seen Labor ministers lining up today, they’re trying to remain positive despite today’s Newspoll. We have seen today that Labor’s primary vote has dropped to 31 per cent. When you look at the two-party preferred base as well, the Coalition would win comfortably with 55% of the vote. For the Prime Minister personally the news is also bad, with Tony Abbott ahead of Julia Gillard as preferred leader. Unfortunately for Labor this isn’t a once off. We’re seeing results today that pretty much echo the Nielsen poll that came out last week. Despite that, we are seeing Julia Gillard supporters rallying around her today again, being forced to defend her leadership. Here are some of the comments we’ve had today.
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This afternoon on our panel we’re joined by the Liberal Senator Scott Ryan and the Labor Senator Matt Thistlethwaite, thank you both for your time today.
We did hear Matt, just then, some of your colleagues saying ‘there is still a bit of time to go here, we can turn things around’. But what does this poll mean to you? What’s your analysis of it and what could it mean for Julia Gillard’s leadership?
Senator Matt Thistlethwaite: Well the poll’s another strong indicator we’ve got a bit of work to do. We know that. We’ve got some work to do in the lead up to the election, but we’ve got six months and we’re going to increasingly focus on the policy differences between the two parties.
Gillon: Sorry I am going to interrupt, we will continue this conversation but we are going live to Tony Abbott, the Opposition Leader.
<Tony Abbott’s press conference>
Gillon: The Opposition Leader Tony Abbott there speaking to the media in Rockhampton. I think North Queenslanders are going to see a lot of Mr Abbott and Julia Gillard, the Prime Minister, in the coming months of course.
We were discussing today’s Newspoll before we went to that news conference with the Opposition Leader. Mr Abbott not keen to get too in-depth in terms of analysis on these polls today suggesting voters would like to see all sides getting on with policy. We are going to look at these polls though because we know, of course, these are something that politicians do pay attention to, very close attention, even though they may pretend they don’t. Matt Thistlethwaite and Scott Ryan are on our panel this afternoon and Matt Thistlethwaite, we were just talking to you earlier about your analysis and what it means for Julia Gillard’s leadership, that she again had a very bad poll off the back of the Nielsen last week.
Senator Thistlethwaite: Well as I said, it means we have got some work to do. I think those numbers actually reflect, unfortunately, some of the evidence that has come out of the ICAC in recent months in Sydney. There is no doubt that unfortunately there’s been some backgrounding and leaking from the Labor Caucus, which I think has undermined our policy message and our policy plans. But as Tony Abbott has said, he’d rather talk about plans than polls, I agree with him. We’re happy to talk about plans. In Western Sydney, a big issue is cost of living. If we look at what we know, the Liberal Party has announced they’ll reduce the tax-free threshold – so that’s a tax increase for low-income workers. They’ll get rid of the low-income superannuation contribution – that’s a tax increase for 3.5 million workers, most of whom are women. They’ll get rid of the schoolkids bonus, which helps families fund the cost of sending kids to school. So you’re going to get, in Western Sydney, a reduction in services, through what Barry O’Farrell’s been doing, further service reduction through a Liberal government and tax increases. They’re the big issues we want to talk about.
Gillon: And that, no doubt, is going to be the message of Prime Minister Julia Gillard next week. She is going to be spending five nights out at Rooty Hill in western Sydney, taking the faux election campaign to some key marginal seats that Labor just can’t afford to lose. We do know, of course, when we look at these sort of polls, the Liberals have every right to feel pretty confident about picking up a swathe of those seats when you break down those results today.
Senator Scott Ryan: What Tony [Abbott] said there, he said he’d prefer to talk about plans than polls, that reflects exactly what I heard last week when I was around Melbourne and late the week before when I was down in south-west Victoria. People are sick of a Government that is focussed on naval gazing. Matt just there outlined the problems on his own side: the ICAC issues, the leaking issues, the ministers today are talking about polls. This is a Government that is not focussed on the cost-of-living, it is not focussed on small business, it is focussed on its own survival.
Matt talked about things being cut. The first thing we’ll cut is the carbon tax and that is a huge issue for people in western Sydney. People are now getting their summer power bills. I speak to people in the community and they are noticing it.
Gillon: You don’t think the Coalition is perhaps over-estimating the impact that’s really having out there in the community, because we have seen a number of polls suggesting that in terms of how big an issue this is, this is really dropping down the agenda for most voters. Tony Abbott also really wanted to focus on that in that news conference.
Senator Ryan: People are getting their power bills from summer, I know, in my experience, people are really starting to notice these dramatic increases. It may not be an issue inside Parliament House to the same degree, but out there, when people are receiving these bills and noticing hundreds of dollars of increases because of air conditioning costs and what’s been a warm summer for most of eastern Australia, in particular, people are noticing that. Matt talked about other things we are going to change, like the schoolkids bonus. We are going to cut that because it is paid by borrowed money. There is no point giving money to some parents that the kids have to pay back in tax by Labor running up the deficit. What we’re also going to do is build WestConnex, just like in Melbourne where we are going to ensure the East-West Link gets a start, because traffic is a huge impact on quality of life in the suburbs of our major cities.
Senator Thistlethwaite: You want to talk about the carbon tax because that’s one of the few policies you’ve actually announced. You don’t want to talk about education reform, you don’t want to talk about healthcare reform, you don’t want to talk about how you’re going to go about tax reform and you don’t want to talk about industrial relations reform because you haven’t got plans.
Senator Ryan: Let’s go to each one of those issues.
Gillon: Are you hearing the same sort of things that Scott Ryan was just talking about? About power prices rising? Are you hearing that in terms of voters still having serious concerns?
Senator Thistlethwaite: Yeah there are concerns about power prices, but it’s been proven time and time again …
Gillon: Being linked to the carbon price?
Senator Thistlethwaite: The carbon tax is doing exactly what we’ve said it would do …
Senator Ryan: Forcing up prices.
Senator Thistlethwaite: It has increased prices by 10 per cent, now that was what Treasury modelled it would do. The other 50 per cent of the increase has been due to “gold-plating”. There have been numerous inquiries that have proved that …
Senator Ryan: Not in Victoria.
Senator Thistlethwaite: … And that has been the state governments. It is not the carbon price, the carbon price is doing exactly what we said it would do. It is reducing emissions over time in the least cost and most efficient method in our economy.
Senator Ryan: It is not reducing our emissions …
Senator Thistlethwaite: It is, it is.
Senator Ryan: It is not. We buy permits from overseas.
Senator Thistlethwaite: But in relative terms it is reducing emissions.
Gillon: Ok, we have had this debate about the carbon tax many times on this program. I do want to look at a few different aspects of this poll that are important as we lead up to the lower-house returning here in mid-March, obviously the Senate is here this week, but we don’t have the full Caucus therefore the leadership speculation is likely to only intensify as we see more polls in the coming weeks.
We saw today that 62 per cent of those surveyed said the return of Kevin Rudd would make no difference. They wouldn’t care if Kevin Rudd returned in terms of how that swayed their vote. One in four said yes, it would make them more likely to vote Labor, 13 per cent said it would actually turn them off. In terms of analysis of what that means, we spoke to the former Labor powerbroker and minister Graham Richardson this morning.
<CLIP>
Would you agree with that interpretation Senator?
Senator Thistlethwaite: The grass is always greener on the other side with these sorts of things. I don’t subscribe to the view that we should have a revolving door of leadership when times get tough. These sorts of comparisons were made in NSW in the dying days of that government and we saw what happened there. I think we just need to learn the lessons of history, knuckle down, get on with the job of delivering a better plan for the people of Australia and get out and talk to the people of Australia about that plan. That’s what the Prime Minister is going to do in western Sydney next week and that’s what we want to do on every occasion when we come on these programs and talk about policy issues and the differences between the two parties. I keep saying to people, ‘think about what is in the best interests of you and your family’. Then when you talk about policy, we’ve got a good story to tell.
Gillon: The Coalition obviously has a lot of fun with the Rudd versus Gillard debate that is going on and it is obvious to see why you talk about that a lot, in terms of adding to that instability, which it certainly does. But would you really like Kevin Rudd to make a comeback, considering we could see a honeymoon period for him and a boost in the poll numbers?
Senator Ryan: What Labor do to themselves in this ongoing process of torture is utterly irrelevant to us.
Gillon: Really? Is that really your position?
Senator Ryan: It is. Don’t worry about the things in politics you can’t control, worry about the things you can. So we’re out there with a plan, talking to people about how we’re going to reduce the carbon tax. That business Tony was just at up there in Rockhampton, that’s paying a carbon tax for everything it produces that its import competitors are not. How on earth does that help Australia? Matt talked about health and education. Well I was in Melbourne last week and we know for a fact that the Commonwealth cut $107 million out of Victorian hospitals before it put it back at the last minute, because it was seeking refunds for treatments done 17 months earlier. In education, we’ve got a Government that has had a Gonski report for more than a year and still won’t guarantee that no school will be worse off, still won’t guarantee that indexation will exist at least in current terms, and still won’t guarantee there is not going to be a penalty for non-government schools.
Gillon: There is a long way to go on those reforms: school funding, as well as health funding. Julia Gillard just seems to have fight after fight with the states.
Senator Thistlethwaite: Look, I visit a lot of schools throughout NSW and the thing about a school visit is you can tell a good school the moment you walk into one. Some of our schools are struggling, particularly in rural and regional areas, and some of the students are struggling. This is showing up in the country’s performance comparative to other international economies. So, when we came to government, we saw this was a problem so we set up an inquiry through the Gonski process and we had experts travel throughout the country and consult with students, with parents, with teachers and come up with a new funding model so that we removed some of the disadvantage in the system. They’ve done that. What we’re saying now to the states, Ashleigh, is work with us on this. The Commonwealth doesn’t have the power to legislate for education, we need to do it through the states. We know budgets are tight, but we’re saying ‘work with us on this, we can find the money if we work together’. We’ve done it in NSW with the National Disability Insurance Scheme and credit to Barry O’Farrell, he found the $3 billion, so we’re working together on this as well.
Gillon: I’m sure hospitals and schools will be on the top of the hit-list for Julia Gillard as she does tour around western Sydney next week. I just want to ask you though, is it really worth it? Julia Gillard has a house at Kirribilli, she is going to be staying for five nights in a hotel, no doubt with security, with staffers. Say it is $300 a night for five nights for 10 people, it works about to be about $20,000 (sic). Is that really how we should be spending taxpayer funds at this point, so far out from the campaign? What’s the point? Why can’t she get in the car from Kirribilli and head out to western Sydney each day?
Senator Thistlethwaite: If you really want to connect with the community, you’ve got to get out there and live with the people.
Gillon: Is that really what the Prime Minister will do, connect with the people by living in a hotel?
Senator Thistlethwaite: Yes. She will be holding functions and engagements in the evening so she will be talking to communities. There has been a lot of misinformation that has been spread by the Liberal Party in NSW, particularly relating to education reform and healthcare reform, and it is particularly important that Julia Gillard is out there talking directly to families and communities about what our plans are and what these reforms will mean for them and their families.
Senator Ryan: This is the modern Labor Party, they think getting out there with the people is taking your staff and staying in a hotel for five days. The Prime Minister’s got a house in Kirribilli, this is the point that is relevant here. But a visit doesn’t matter if you don’t address people’s real concerns. Out in western Sydney you’ve got substantial numbers of people who are losing the health insurance rebate; who are worried about the future of their school fees because they send their kids to non-government schools; who are going to bear the costs of Labor’s funding cuts in healthcare under the healthcare agreements, which are now cascading through Victoria, Queensland and NSW in particular.
Senator Thistlethwaite: The funding’s cut in health because Liberal governments have taken that money that was delivered by the Commonwealth. In NSW, an extra $1.1 billion, an 23 per cent increase on what would have been delivered under the Abbott plan when he was health minister. That money’s being taken out of health and put into projects like north-west rail.
Senator Ryan: That’s completely untrue. There is an audited set of accounts that proves that is not true.
Gillon: The point is, this is going to be a key battleground and Tony Abbott is obviously going to be spending a lot of time in western Sydney over the coming weeks. At the last campaign, Mr Abbott did have a blitz of western Sydney that took a couple of days and took in some 10 marginal seats. So we are going to see both of them spend a lot of time there. What is it though, that needs to change, that you are in control of in western Sydney, to make sure that those seats can stay with Labor?
Senator Thistlethwaite: We need to be able to get our plan across the people. When we talk about cost of living pressures there is a stark difference between Labor and the Coalition. I believe we’ve got a better plan for all the reasons I’ve just outlined and we need to be talking about better service delivery. The National Disability Insurance Scheme is a big winner for us in western Sydney. There are a lot of community organisations delivering disability services, and I am confident, that once the Prime Minister gets out there and talks to them about what our plan means and the fact that we’ve reached an agreement with the NSW Government and we can use that model throughout the rest of that country to get better services for people living with disabilities.
Gillon: If we see a deal at COAG on health and education, it would be a real blow for the Coalition.
Senator Ryan: We actually want to see a system where kids are guaranteed a better education. We just don’t believe that Labor can have all the plans in the world when they’ve got the record of broken promises, you can’t trust them on that; when they’ve got the record on everything going wrong from school halls to pink batts, you can’t trust them on that.
Gillon: Senators thank you for your time, we know you’ve got to get off to the Senate Question Time so we will let you run down the corridors for that.