Topics: Opinion polls, same-sex marriage, GST
Lyndal Curtis: Hello and welcome to Capital Hill, I’m Lyndal Curtis. The impact of opinion polls on politics and whether it should be so is a much discussed topic. Today, you couldn’t get away from the opinion polls. There were four of them out today, Newspoll, Nielsen, Essential and Morgan. The average has the Coalition ahead on the two-party preferred, 53 to 47. Newspoll recorded the bigger change; it has the parties dead even, 50/50. In both Nielsen and Newspoll Labor is making gains in its primary vote, but neither have it near where it was at last election.
Joining me to discuss this and other issues are two senators Labor’s Glenn Sterle and Liberal’s Scott Ryan. Welcome to you both.
Curtis: We’ll go first to the polls. And the Coalition was blaming attacks on Tony Abbott’s character last week for the fall in Mr Abbott’s standing, the Labor Party had a different view.
< Clip from Christopher Pyne, Julie Bishop and Senator Chris Evans>
Glenn, is the only poll that matters the one that you’re in front it?
Senator Sterle: The only poll that matters is the one on election day. But Lyndal I think the people of Australia have had the opportunity to sit back and look at the choices that they’ll have at the next election. They have the choice between the Gillard Labor government, a can do government, a government that cares about health, education and disabilities. Or you can have the option of Tony Abbott and the Coalition government and it is all about what he won’t do. They won’t have a disability insurance scheme, they won’t have a mining tax, they won’t have a carbon tax. I think the people of Australia are sitting back and are actually starting to analyse now. And Mr Abbott can run around and keep his head as low as he likes, he can run his constant negativity, but people are starting to question it, they want to see policies.
Lyndal Curtis: Scott, they’re obviously Glenn’s reason why he thinks the polls are shifting in Labor’s favour. There are a myriad of reasons around, what are your favourites for some of the changes that have happened?
Senator Ryan: Look I don’t try and pass the polls Lyndal. Glenn there tried to sledge us on things like the National Disability Insurance Scheme. The truth is the polls were always going to narrow and what we’ve had over the last few weeks is a Prime Minister who is flip flopping and changing every decision like an Olympic gymnast in order to try and get some popularity on Twitter.
Going forward for the next 12 months before the election, I am confident that when we put forward our plans, which do involve no carbon tax, which do involve no mining tax, they also don’t involve record government debt and making future Australians pay for a good time these days, by running up deficit after deficit.
Lyndal Curtis: Now there were leadership questions asked, cheekily I think ,in the Nielsen poll, Glenn Nielsen through Kevin Rudd into the mix, if he is the leader the two-party preferred switches right around in Labor’s favour, is that a reason to change leadership?
Senator Sterle: Lyndal there is absolutely no reason to change the leadership. I am fully committed to supporting Prime Minister Gillard, as is the Labor Caucus, and Prime Minister Gillard will lead the Labor Party and the Government to the next election.
Lyndal Curtis: Does it surprise you that while the, what’s called the Kevin Rudd effect, appears to be dissipating a little bit over time, does it surprise you that that the vote switches that strongly?
Senator Sterle: Well look –
Lyndal Curtis: – In the one poll I have to say.
Senator Sterle: Yes I understand what you’re saying Lyndal, but let’s analyse it. The attack on Prime Minister Gillard from Mr Abbott and the frontbench has been nothing short of vitriolic. The Prime Minister has done a fantastic job, she has put through over 300 pieces of legislation, she has put out some wonderful, wonderful policy to carry us through, not only this term of government and hopefully next term of government. It doesn’t surprise me that there’d be a little bit of this sort of conjecture and some conversation. But the Caucus, the Labor Caucus is fully supportive behind the Prime Minister.
Lyndal Curtis: I’ll ask you a question about your leadership Scott. Tony Abbott’s personal approval ratings haven’t been all that flash. It’s not a problem for you is it as long as the party is a mile out in front, what happens if it narrows further?
Senator Ryan: Well polls will always narrow Lyndal, especially leading into an election. I have been here for four, four and a half years, and Tony has proven to be the most effective Opposition Leader for decades in this Parliament. He has been the person who destroyed one Prime Minister and made people like Glenn move on Kevin Rudd. He is the person who held Julia Gillard to account for her broken promise on the carbon tax. And unlike the Labor Party, all the people in the Liberal Party are in the tent. We have people on our frontbench, these people, the Labor Party, are constantly having to put out fires set by Kevin Rudd supporters in order to stabilise the leadership of their Prime Minister.
Lyndal Curtis: Having just spent the last few minutes discussing opinion polls, I’ll turn the question around, there were four polls out today, Glenn how much do politicians really pay attention to them?
Senator Sterle: Oh watch them like a hawk, don’t worry about that Lyndal. Don’t worry about all the nonsense you hear, they watch them like a hawk, of course they do.
Lyndal Curtis: And Scott?
Senator Ryan: Oh you watch them, and you look at them. But a government that takes its guidance, or a political party that takes its guidance, from the polls, is one that will actually not be rewarded by the people. And that’s been Labor’s problem; they’ve always looked at what will happen at the next poll. This is what happened with the Supertrawler last week. The Twitter campaign lead to a back flip on policy for a boat that Labor themselves had invited to Australian waters. Polls are, they’re like a scoreboard half way through a football match, they don’t tell you what the final score is going to be.
Senator Sterle: You’re going to have to come out with some policy soon Scott, you can’t keep hiding mate.
Lyndal Curtis: Well we might move on to some of the debate in Parliament today. Debate on one of the same-sex marriage bills began in the Senate, here is just a little flavour of it.
<Clip from Senator Louise Pratt, Senator Rachel Siewert and Senator Ron Boswell>
Lyndal Curtis: Now Glenn, there are passionate debates from both sides on this issue, in the end it will be one that is determined by the numbers, where do you think the numbers lie in the Senate on this question?
Senator Sterle: Well Lyndal, there are a lot of Senators out there, you read blogs and all that and a lot of them are undecided. I can only speak for myself, where it’s going to end up I’m not quite sure. I hazard a guess to say while the Liberal Party is not allowed a conscience vote I would probably guess that it would go in the negative.
Lyndal Curtis: And Scott what’s your view?
Senator Ryan: I think it is more likely than not that the Bill won’t be passed.
Lyndal Curtis: Do you think there would be a change if it was discussing the notion of civil unions? And not discussing marriage per se?
Senator Ryan: I don’t know Lyndal it’s not something that I actually have given some thought to. The Commonwealth’s got questionable power too over something like civil unions. I am not even sure, depending on how that Bill is drafted, whether it would be a Commonwealth matter.
Lyndal Curtis: And Glenn?
Senator Sterle: Oh I am the same, I agree.
Lyndal Curtis: Do you think there will come a time in politics where the idea of same-sex marriage is acceptable? Is it an idea whose time hasn’t yet come?
Senator Sterle: Lyndal, issues come and go; there is no doubt about it. I mean I am from WA we continually keep blueing about daylight savings for crying out loud. It all depends on the make up at the time of the parliament. I think for this time there’s a concerted push from the Labor Party, as far as we’re concerned there will be a conscience vote. Now whether that’s the end of the discussion in Parliament, or two or three to come, who knows.
Senator Ryan: Lyndal, I don’t think it is entirely appropriate language to say whether it is an idea whose time is to come, because importantly this is not like the civil rights debate, as I think some of its advocates have tried to portray it. We have gotten rid of every legal mechanism that discriminated between same-sex couples, married couples and de facto couples. This is purely about the Marriage Act and the definition of marriage, so it is not a civil rights issue in the way some seem to have portrayed it where there is some discrimination left. It’s really is just about the definition of marriage.
Lyndal Curtis: But it might be one where community attitudes change over time?
Senator Ryan: I don’t take community attitudes for granted and those of us who have particular views, our job is to put those views and be held accountable for them.
Lyndal Curtis: We might move on to one other difficult issue, the taboo subject in federal politics seems to be the GST. The Treasurer rules out any notion that it will be considered, but the New South Wales Premier does want it discussed.
Glenn given that the Treasury Secretary Martin Parkinson says Commonwealth revenues will be about $20 billion down from pre-Global Financial Crisis levels, is there a case to look at changing the GST to give the states some access to more revenue?
Senator Sterle: Lyndal, the Prime Minister has already stated that she is going to have a look at it. Ok, we’re waiting for a report to come back, I think it would be disingenuous especially after what we have seen from the states, particularly New South Wales, with their cuts in health and education in the last week or so, to actually get into a full scale discussion about it at this stage.
Lyndal Curtis: But that’s the kind of dispersion of the GST, the revenues across the states, what about the tax itself? Is there a case for it at least to be looked at?
Senator Sterle: Well Lyndal I’m from WA, where the Western Australian Liberal government back in the 90s fell over themselves to support Prime Minister John Howard to bring in the GST. There was no argument about it then. Now all of a sudden that Labor’s in power they want to have an argument about it. I don’t believe so, I believe let the committee do its work and see what the report brings back.
Lyndal Curtis: Scott do you think that there’s a case for the states to say their revenue base is in trouble and they need to have access to a changed GST, whether the rate be higher or the base be broader?
Senator Ryan: No. I mean, look if Julia Gillard says she is going to look at the GST rate then I think people should start to get worried. Our position on this is black and white. No there won’t be a change and that is exactly what we did when we were in government. The states’ revenue bases have grown quite enormously over the last 20 years. I remember in the year 2000, the Victorian budget under Steve Bracks and John Brumby was in the order of $19 billion. Nine years later it was at over $40 billion, there has been substantial revenue growth there.
Lyndal Curtis: But where is that growth coming from though?
Senator Ryan: Well that growth came from the GST, that was very good for the states, and despite the Labor Party state governments enjoying the benefits of all that revenue boom, they didn’t make it easy for us to introduce when it was introduced by the Coalition government. And of course the state’s own taxes increased. But effectively a doubling in the revenue in a decade, that’s pretty healthy revenue base.
Lyndal Curtis: Glenn, when the GST was out in place, Peter Costello effectively handcuffed the states to the federal government saying everybody needs to agree before it will be increased. Is that a recipe for it to never be changed? Because neither the states or the federal government want to take the blame for changing it?
Senator Sterle: Lyndal, I am a firm believer that if circumstances change, review. Good governments do review, but at this stage this is just a shenanigan from from New South Wales, from Mr O’Farrell, he has been slapped down by the leadership, the federal leadership of the Liberal Party. And it’s heartening to hear that Scott’s agreeing with his leader. It’s a smokescreen.
Senator Ryan: My point is we’re not going to increase the tax. You don’t make people’s cost of living easier by increasing taxes.
Senator Sterle: So you’re slapping down Scotty? You agree?
Senator Ryan: Well mate unlike you we don’t believe in increasing taxes.
Senator Sterle: Well you don’t mind tacking worker’s wages and conditions. When are we going to have that discussion? I’m looking forward to that one.
Lyndal Curtis: Well at another time because we have run out of time today. Scott Ryan and Glenn Sterle, thank you very much for your time.
Senator Ryan: Thank you.
Senator Sterle: Thank you Lyndal.