E&OE…
JIM MIDDLETON:
Two weeks to go, and this is where it does get really serious. Pre-poll voting has been underway since Tuesday and nearly 200,000 people have already voted. More than 2 million people voted this way at the last election, nearly 30 per cent of all voters. And the Electoral Commission expects the figure to be even higher this time around. Joining us now, our political panel, Skills Minister Scott Ryan, and Labor frontbencher Ed Husic. Gentlemen, welcome to you both. Very interesting set of polls out today, and Scott Ryan to you first of all, they suggest that the Turnbull Government is going to be returned but it would be on the coattails, appear on the remnants, I should say, of the (inaudible) Tony Abbott got back in 2013. That is hardly much of a personal mandate for Malcolm Turnbull is it?
SCOTT RYAN:
One of the sad things about this campaign is I think I get asked about polls more than about any particularly policy.
JIM MIDDLETON:
(Laughter) We will get to policy is a moment, don’t worry about that!
SCOTT RYAN:
What the polls say is that this election is going to be close. That was what was in this morning’s papers, and that is what I have been saying for the last two months. I think that has been obvious to the community. Every election is a close one, this is going to be a very close election. If people actually want to have a Government that is going to be stable and going to be able to the manage the economy, and implement what it said it would do at the election, the only real option for that is to vote for the Coalition.
JIM MIDDLETON:
But isn’t it the case that one of Malcolm Turnbull’s problem, in the period since he became Prime Minister last September, was the pressure coming from the right on him and pushing him away from the centre. Which was where people who supported him wanted him to be, certainly voters. And that is the disappointed we are now seeing with his popularity dropping and Primary vote for the Coalition, and indeed the Labor Party dropping as well.
SCOTT RYAN:
The one thing no one over the last six weeks has mentioned to me in this campaign are issues like that. What people have spoken to me about are their concerns about the economy, sometimes their concern about other public policy areas as well. What you have mentioned there is really a discussion that people in Canberra have, journalists, and occasionally even politicians. It is not one I am going to jump into this afternoon. The Prime Minister is leading a team that actually is taking reasonable, pragmatic, but at the same time practical policies that have been proven to work. We know that if you cut taxes you will actually support economic growth, particularly when you do it on business – Bob Hawke did it, Paul Keating did it, John Howard did it and up until six weeks ago Chris Bowen and Bill Shorten said you should do it. Policies like that, which we know will be in the long-term interest of the country, are the ones we are taking to the election. They are not always the populists slogans that Labor will have. But we are actually taking people into our confidence by being honest with them, rather than running campaigns based on lies, like the privatisation of Medicare which is simply not going to happen.
JIM MIDDLETON:
Ed Husic, I have no doubt that you have a response to that.
ED HUSIC:
Do I ever!
JIM MIDDLETON:
But also to the other side of the coin… (laughter) well, away you go!
ED HUSIC:
I was going to say, hold up! Let’s take a bit of longer term history and recent history. When Tony Abbott was elected in 2013 people were proclaiming the ‘era of Abbott’. This guy was supposed to be leading an Abbott government for a number of terms, and it didn’t work out. Why? Because basically all the hand on hear promises they had about pledges and things they were going to do, they broke in that 2014 Budget and they broke their credibility with it. And then Malcolm Turnbull, who last night remarkably in the Facebook debate said ‘people yearn for stability’, after he got rid of that very Prime Minister – Tony Abbott – Malcolm Turnbull was supposed to be also on top of the world, and we were going to usher in a Turnbull era. And now that has gone too. And why”? because people are disappointed in Malcolm Turnbull as well not delivering. The only consistency is a failure to deliver, a failure to meet community expectation about what’s needed and that is why these guys are in the grief they are in. Frankly, Labor should not be in the position we are in right now. I know that sounds weird, but you would ordinarily assume that a first term government would be performing much better. But they haven’t got the answers for schools, this government, they haven’t got the answers for hospitals, they haven’t got the answer for a longer term economic plan other than $50 billion corporate tax cut. They still have got division on their side, with a lot of people grumbling – particularly in the conservative elements – that are going to basically tie down Malcolm Turnbull, if he does win on 2 July. They will tie him down and not let him be the Prime Minister that he reckons, or suggests to be. So I think this is a remarkable election when you consider that both of the big players that were in this, Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull, supposed to be doing much better and not. Because the public is basically giving them the down.
JIM MIDDLETON:
If what you say is true, why do the polls suggest you are having trouble regaining support in the areas that you need? Where you are, western Sydney, the central cost of New South Wales and also in Queensland. You have, it appears, if the polls are correct, got your vote locked up in the wrong places, and you could have a re-run of 1998 when you won more than 50 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, but could not win the seats you needed to form government.
ED HUSIC:
I guess , two things. First, as I said a few moments ago, we wouldn’t have necessarily expected that we would be in a position where this election would be so tight but we do recognise that we have said from the get-go to dislodge a first term government. I think the last time it happens was in the 1930s, and so the degree of difficulty is pretty high. But I think we are in there giving it a very good shake, in terms of the next two weeks, let’s see what happens. I think people are going to give a sharper focus and a bit more clearer thinking about the vote they are going to cast, and whether or not they can actually trust the Turnbull Government. We have had, basically, Malcolm Turnbull dodge scrutiny. He was supposed to be the person who could answer things clearly…
(Interrupted)
JIM MIDDLETON:
But that is your job. You’re the opposition, your job is to put them under scrutiny. Obviously you have failed.
ED HUSIC:
I agree , we do need to put him under scrutiny. Let’s do it in a debate. What happens? They put a Facebook debate on. I am a big fan of tech and social media, but who does a Facebook debate one, that gets 12,000 people two, and three, why did they get it? Because they scheduled it on a Friday night. A Friday night debate! Who is seriously going to watch a political debate on a Friday night, on a platform that hasn’t been tested? And Malcolm Turnbull is smart enough to know all of this, in his mind he doesn’t want people to watch him up close at this time. That is why his press conferences are so controlled, that is why he dictates the terms of the debates and so people don’t watch the debates so he can just slide in on a smart smile, a smart grin, and not be accountable for the decisions that he will or will not take if he gets into government and whether or not Tony Abbott and his crew will let him actually make those decisions. And I don’t think it is right.
JIM MIDDLETON:
Question for you Scott Ryan, it does emerge from that Facebook face-off of last night. Malcolm Turnbull said that there would be, that he had no plans for changes to penalty rates should his government be re-elected. But does that also mean that a Coalition government would make a submission to the Fair Work Commission arguing against any change to penalty rates as they currently stand?
SCOTT RYAN:
As I understood last night, he was asked a question and he said he had no plans and then the moderator, Joe Hildebrand, followed up specifically saying ‘well, you have no plans does that mean you won’t do anything?’ and Malcolm Turnbull made it very clear the Government will now change the law. He also made a point of saying that we have an independent umpire that is the policy the Liberal Party has made clear we support, and that independent umpire will make a decision free of any heavy-handed intervention from government. And quite frankly, the hypocrisy of Bill Shorten on this, when he was a union leader signed up deals that saw workers worth off when the union received money, to say that somehow making a submission actually means that he stands for this more strongly? It is just hypocrisy at large and goes to the whole strategy of Labor in this campaign – politics of grievance. And they are just trying to create angst, as Ed did then when he made unfounded allegations, he was just making it up about these series of debates. We have had three debates in six weeks, in three different formats. And last night…
ED HUSIC:
Two on a Friday night.
SCOTT RYAN:
…if you look at the reach of that Facebook debate, through people’s feed , the fact that people can watch parts of it later, the fact that it was co-broadcast on ABC 24 and this network, SKY, tens of thousands of people watched it.
JIM MIDDLETON:
Indeed, just another point…(Husic over the top – inaudible)
ED HUSIC:
Sorry.
JIM MIDDLETON:
It doesn’t sound to me Scott that there will be any kind of submission should your government be returned. But to you Ed Husic, the point is too that Bill Shorten has frequently suggested that the Fair Work Commission is independent and that is the reason that you wouldn’t legislate if you came into office to guarantee that penalty rates remained as they are. So you are basically on the same page there aren’t you? Both major Parties?
ED HUSIC:
Hang on a second, look at the form that a Coalition. I don’t know if they have ever supported, for example, a submission to increase the wages of some of the lowest earning workers of this country. They will always fight against wage increases of people on low incomes, on the minimum wage. And Scott can correct me if I am wrong, but more often than not they will be arguing against it, saying that we cannot afford it even though wages growth has been pretty flat in this country, breaking records for how low that growth has been. And two, does anyone seriously believe that we have just heard Malcolm Turnbull say that he is on a unity ticket with Labor on penalty rates? Last time we heard that was on school funding, and where did that end up? You cannot trust the Coalition, just like people could not trust Tony Abbott after he broke his promises, people cannot trust Malcolm Turnbull who had strong views on climate change, marriage equality, and the republic, that he says ‘oh, I will also protect your penalty rates as well’, when he sold out on everything else he believed. And, sorry, can I just add on the Facebook debate, I am taking a News Limited publication that said there were only 12,000 people…
(Interrupted)
SCOTT RYAN:
If you add in the people who were watching on SKY and ABC 24, add in the people who Facebook claimed had a reach through the feeds of hundreds of thousands. So, you are just trying to manufacture…
(Interrupted)
ED HUSIC:
Why are the Coalition being cowards?
SCOTT RYAN:
There have been three debates! There have been more debates than in most campaigns. There have been more debates in this, than have taken place in most elections. There is still two weeks to go. Stop trying to manufacture outrage here…
ED HUSIC:
What, there is going to be another debate?
SCOTT RYAN:
…Ed. Labor always try to manufacture outrage. You stand there and you run the politics of grievance…
ED HUSIC:
Hey, I’m chill, I’m fine.
SCOTT RYAN
… and you’re changing the terms all of the time.
JIM MIDDLETON:
Another debate then Scott Ryan? If you have nothing to fear?
SCOTT RYAN:
I have absolutely no idea about scheduling. But I remember we…
ED HUSIC:
You said there were two weeks to go.
SCOTT RYAN:
…you were sometimes lucky to get one debate in an election campaign, we have had three. That’s more than we have had at any time I can remember.
ED HUSIC.
Come on Scott. They have been on a Friday night! Who watches politics if you have got Friday night sport, and you are going out and ending the week? Other than tragics like you and I my friend.
SCOTT RYAN:
Regardless of whether it is a Friday night, or Tuesday or Wednesday night, I still think a lot of people are going to find something else to watch on television.
ED HUSIC:
Mate you are hard-core, that’s why I love you Scott. I’ll say that on air.
(laughter)
JIM MIDDLETON:
Let’s get back to this penalty rates issue, if indeed Malcolm Turnbull is to be believed and there will be no changes, or there would be no changes under a returned Coalition government, that is going to disappoint a lot of the people who have supported the Liberal Party and indeed donated quite a bit of money to your campaign Scott Ryan.
SCOTT RYAN:
One of the lessons to be quite frank, I was first elected in the 2007 Federal election, the people made their choice. And the Liberal Party has made it very clear, Tony Abbott famously put it dead, buried and cremated in 2010 and we have stuck by that principle. Because the people made a judgement, and I think that is being honest. We are a democracy, and that is what elections are for to determine issues. Now, when Ed talked about there, the issue of submissions on minimum pay rates, I am not going to shy away from the fact that yes, my side of politics takes into account the effect of the minimum wage on the unemployed. And we know that if you actually do increase things too quickly, you will have an impact on those who are not in the job market, who don’t have the opportunity for a job. It is always a matter of balance. And that is why our policy is to support the independent umpire.
JIM MIDDLETON:
Scott Ryan, just very briefly, the Xenophon phenomenon in South Australia, you have been campaigning in Mayo in support of Jaime Briggs – clearly under threat in what was a very blue ribbon Liberal seat for a very long time. It is surprising is it not, but it does appear that there is a real chance that you could lose there.
SCOTT RYAN:
In 1998, the election you mentioned earlier, I think it was that election that saw Alexander Downer pushed very close by John Schumann then from the Australian Democrats. Look, Nick Xenophon – I am a Victorian – he has a particular presence in South Australia, I think Ed would agree. But the policies Nick puts forward aren’t going to solve the economic that people face in their communities, businesses or in their state of South Australia. Nick Xenophon basically says let’s shut the doors, let’s take Australia back to the 50s. That means that everyone, particularly, for example, South Australian wine makers which are one of our great export industries, one of our great value added agricultural industries. If we turn our back on trade, which is Nick Xenophon’s policy, then all of the people employed in that sector are going to feel that. We have to keep pushing that argument because I think he poses a real and genuine threat to the economic prosperity of the people he claims to represent. He really threatens their interest.
JIM MIDDLETON:
Ed Husic, do you think that Nick Xenophon does really have a chance of winning Mayo? And given the amount of time that Bill Shorten has spent in South Australia and the money that he has thrown at that state, you have got to be disappointed when you have had a total collapse of the Labor vote – into the low 20s – partly of the consequence of the attraction of Nick Xenophon.
ED HUSIC:
Bill Shorten has been everywhere, he is everywhere! Every time you look around the country he is out there leading a very active campaign and meeting with people. He is not afraid to do the street walks and engage in the colour of that very front-foot type of campaign. He has obviously spent time in South Australia, Perth, he has spent a lot of time in New South Wales, he is out and about. I guess I come to the point about not being a South Australia myself, clearly. Obviously Nick Xenophon does have a big presence in South Australia. My dealings with Nick himself have always been very positive and very fruitful. But this is the problem, you can’t equate Nick Xenophon to every one of his candidates and whether or not they will perform the same way as Nick. We saw this with the Palmer United Party, everyone thought if they voted in the Palmer United Party they would get people who would be of a particular calibre and we saw how that ended in tears at bed time. It was a terrible experience for the Senate, and for in particular Clive Palmer who went on to have his own difficulties. So, the issue is when you have these sudden, rolled out of the blue Parties, you have to question whether or not the quality of the people on that ticket is such that they will represent faithfully the desire, the needs, and the wishes of their constituency. And that is the big question mark. So, it is important that we get, certainly, a stable Parliament. I don’t think it would be great to go back to a hung Parliament whatsoever. I have lived through one, don’t want another thank-you-very-much. And I think that would represent the thinking of a lot of people in the Australian public.
JIM MIDDLETON:
Indeed, Ed Husic a very engaging debate and not on a Friday night, let there be more of them over the next couple of weeks.
ED HUSIC:
True that, Jim Middleton.
JIM MIDDLETON:
Ed Husic, Scott Ryan, thank you very, very much.
(ENDS)