Topics: US presidential election, same sex marriage plebiscite, High Court challenges to senators.

 

E&OE…

 

KIEREN GILBERT:

With me now, Special Minister of State Senator Scott Ryan, who is a very close watcher of US politics. This is, as David [Speers] says, in the closing stages, all about the negative, trying to raise doubts about the other side, but again, so pivotal will be the turnout in those important states that will decide this election.

 

SENATOR SCOTT RYAN:

What seems to be happening – just to make a couple of observations – as happened in Australia, is massive early voting. I read some numbers this morning about the early turn out in Nevada, that one Democratic strategist was saying, actually puts it beyond reach for the Republicans. We’ve seen the photos of massive queues of voters in Florida and North Carolina and other battleground states. That’s something we’ve seen in Australia – people seem to want to vote before polling day and vote early even though we have ours on the weekend and they have theirs on a working day.

 

GILBERT:

Whoever does win, and I know you’re not going to buy into the predictions, but whoever does win, one thing is for sure, both in a political sense, with their disgruntled, anti-establishment fury, as Mr Hockey, the ambassador, put it, on one hand, and the race divide on the other. Whoever comes into the White House has a huge challenge of trying to unify that very divided country now.

 

SENATOR RYAN:

Look, I think they are obviously, most likely, going to face a divided government in the sense that it is expected the Republicans will retain the House of Representatives, albeit with a smaller majority, the margin in the Senate for whomever controls it will likely be very, very narrow. If it were a 50-50 split and Hillary Clinton won, there is a very good chance the Republicans would take it back at a special election for vice president Caine’s vacant seat next year. As always, in the United States – and as Joe Hockey said, it has gotten worse, or more challenging over the last few years – the system is designed to be a divided government and that puts a lot of onus on the president.

 

GILBERT:

As history shows, it is not the first time they’ve faced division within their society.

 

SENATOR RYAN:

It’s not the first, and one of the things I’ve noticed in all my years of observing and studying American politics is that sometimes, when it is least expected, surprises can happen. When expectations are low, then you can have people in public office who leap over those. I mean, no one suspected LBJ to be able to achieve what he did on civil rights and even when Ronald Reagan was elected, no one expected him to be able to unify the country really, other than his core supporters, the same way. Now I’m not making any observations on Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton in those examples, but America has the capacity to surprise.

 

GILBERT:

Indeed it does and two very good points there, when you look back, as you say, LBJ in comparison to his predecessor, but let’s look at some other issues now. I want to talk about the focus at home recently. We’ve seen the plebiscite knocked over. As the Minister responsible for the plebiscite if it was to go ahead, what’s your reaction to this and is there any plan B in terms of a popular vote.

 

SENATOR RYAN:

It’s disappointing. Bill Shorten said he had no problem with a public vote. Bill Shorten said he thought it would be better to have the Australian public have a say, rather than just a couple of hundred members of Australian Parliament. Last night goes to show that the Labor Party that did nothing about this in office, nothing, that bound its members to vote against it, is only about playing politics. We took a commitment to have a plebiscite to resolve this issue. We had a plan in place to have it done by February next year that would have given every Australian a say. The Greens actually moved for a plebiscite last year in the Senate. Bill Shorten said it was ok and he thought a plebiscite would be reasonable. So what we’ve done is we tried to put that in place. It was our policy. It was disappointing.

 

GILBERT:

Is there any plan B or is this issue now shelved for the term?

 

SENATOR RYAN:

If anyone wants to come to me, any of the crossbenchers want to come to me and say they want to talk about a plebiscite despite the disappointment of last night, I’m happy to talk. The Government always made it very clear we were willing to see this implemented and were willing to negotiate in good faith, but the Government has a large agenda. We have a very full legislative schedule for the next three weeks, we have a very full program for next year. My focus is getting on with implementing all our other election commitments. We are not going to be held up by just one.

 

GILBERT:

In terms of the rest of the Senate, what’s your feeling as to the Culleton, Bob Day challenges to the High Court?

 

SENATOR RYAN:

Well they’ve both been referred by the Senate to the High Court now, so it is a matter for the High Court to determine. Obviously, I was particularly close the Day matter and moved that resolution in the Senate myself yesterday. He has resigned, but this is now effectively a question as to how his vacancy would be filled and it is for the court to determine.

 

GILBERT:

Did he deceive the Government? Did he deceive Ministers in his behaviour?

 

SENATOR RYAN:

In my experience, and my experience only goes to August when then-senator Day first raised this with me on August 4, when I asked for further information, Senator Day provided it on every occasion. There were some occasions earlier in the year where the previous minister asked for evidence of certain rental payments and that wasn’t provided, but it is now a matter for the court. The Senate, the Government, a Minister, we don’t determine who sits in the Senate. Once they’re elected and declared elected, only the High Court can declare them otherwise.

 

GILBERT:

Pauline Hanson, in terms of her Senator, what did you make of her response that no legal fees will be provided, she says, “I back the Government’?

 

SENATOR RYAN:

Well I think what we saw in the Senate yesterday, apart from a few completely ill-informed contributions, from members of the Greens, was most Senators taking the matters very seriously and the debate being taken seriously, to the extent it went to the High Court. But I’m not going to make observations on internal matters of One Nation.

 

GILBERT:

Minister, appreciate your time, thanks for that.

(ENDS)