Topics: Changes to the Future of Financial Advice laws, Senator Jacqui Lambie, asylum seeker resettlement, the China Free Trade Agreement, Victorian election.

E&OE…

KIERAN GILBERT

Good morning and welcome to the program. The Government’s changes to the Future of Financial Advice laws are under threat with Labor, the Greens and crossbench to move a motion disallowing them. We’ll have more on that a bit later, and it comes amid speculation Jacqui Lambie could quit the Palmer United Party as early as today.

With me this morning to discuss all of these issues, Liberal frontbencher Senator Scott Ryan and the shadow immigration minister Richard Marles. Gentlemen, good morning to you.

First to you Senator Ryan, it was hailed as a big win for the Government, the Future of Financial Advice laws – the changes overhauling Labor’s laws – and now it looks like they’re going to hit the fence a bit in the Senate.

SCOTT RYAN

Well, look Kieran I’ve read the reports, but let’s wait and see what happens with the Senate sitting today.

GILBERT

Well, it looks like they’ve got the numbers. If I put it to you – Xenophon, Madigan, Lambie, Muir and the Greens and Labor – with those numbers you would think that Mathias Cormann’s efforts will be stymied, won’t they?

RYAN

Well, Mathias has been underestimated before – he’s been very successful at negotiating the crossbenches and particularly explaining the reasoning behind the Government’s agenda. There is no one in Parliament who understands that area better than Mathias, so let’s wait and see what happens in the Senate today. I’ve read the reports, but maybe Richard can tell us more? But I can only comment on what I’ve seen in the newspaper.

GILBERT

Well, Richard Marles, it does look like the Palmer United Party, that as my friend and colleague Jim Middleton put it before, ‘a pup is about to leave the litter’ in Jacqui Lambie. It could well happen today.

RICHARD MARLES

Well, we’ll all obviously be watching this with interest. Ultimately, what Jacqui Lambie does is a matter for her and how the Palmer United Party manages her internally is a matter for them and I’m not going to add comment to that. All we can do, as a party, is to make sure we are consistent in the positions that we put to the Senate. In relation to the Financial Advice laws, we’ve been absolutely consistent in that and Senator Dastyari has been doing a wonderful job in respect to that, making sure that people are given proper advice and information when they are seeking to get that kind of financial advice from financial advisers. And it’s important that those regulations are in place.

GILBERT

It doesn’t do much, though, for certainty in that industry, does it, when you’ve had the Labor laws, now the Cormann laws and now they’re going to be overturned by – from all appearances this morning, the numbers look like they’re there for Labor to overturn the Government’s approach. So, as I say, it does nothing for certainty.

MARLES

Well, the certainty that people need is clear advice and transparency when they are getting financial advice. We’ve seen too many tragedies over the years where people have not been given the proper information about those financial products that they are buying and investing in, and that’s why these regulations – that’s why the laws that Labor put in place were so important and that’s why we are taking the position we are in the Senate right now.

GILBERT

And, well, Senator Ryan, your response to that? Because that is true, Labor has stuck by their position on the FoFA changes through Chris Bowen and others [inaudible].

RYAN

And we’ve made clear our position, which is that these laws are unnecessarily filled with red tape and compliance burdens. They won’t do what Labor says they will do, and we can’t protect a financial system from every single individual act of malfeasance or inappropriate behaviour. And we shouldn’t overburden the great majority – the overwhelming majority – of people that behave appropriately and increase the costs of financial advice for everyone.

GILBERT

Let’s turn now to the immigration portfolio. Richard Marles, the changes made by Scott Morrison – he’s saying he wants to dry up, essentially, the people smugglers’ source to block people that applied through the UNHCR after July 1, that they won’t be allowed to seek resettlement in Australia. What’s your reaction to that?

MARLES

Well our starting point is that we need to be working cooperatively with those in our region about what is ultimately a regional problem. And in doing so, we need to take on a position of regional leadership and responsibility. Now, the announcement that the Minister made yesterday, in our mind, raises a whole lot of questions and we note a whole lot of the concerns that have been raised by the sector today. We want to know what is the engagement that Minister Morrison has had with the Indonesian Government? I note in an interview earlier this morning he seemed to avoid that question, and that is of enormous concern to us. We want to understand what interaction there has been with the UNHCR. We will be seeking a briefing from the UNHCR today, and we’ll be seeking a briefing from the Government itself to have an explanation of what they have done here and what engagement they’ve had with our region, because regional cooperation is absolutely critical if we are going to have a long-term, sustainable resolution to the issue of people who are displaced within south-east Asia. But I think the other point to make here is…

GILBERT

[Interrupts] Can I ask you about the principle, though, of drying up the pool, as Mr Morrison puts it, because you stop people going to Indonesia in the first place, because the argument is that they won’t have any prospect of making that next step. Do you think that that, in principle, makes sense?

MARLES

Well, I understand the argument, but ultimately what we need to be doing is in any of the steps we’re taking, do so in cooperation with our neighbours. And I make the point that the Houston Report actually suggested that we should be taking an increased number of people from our region. So I want to understand how this step works in the context of that, and I think that is ultimately the point here – we need to be a generous global citizen when it comes to offering protection to those who seek it. When Labor was in office, we had a humanitarian programme of 20,000 places every year. That was slashed by this Government as almost one of its first acts down to 13,750. We need to be a generous country globally and we need to be working with our neighbours.

GILBERT

Scott Ryan, the Minister says that [inaudible] of the Indonesian authorities were consulted. The Australian reports this morning a quote from a senior Indonesian immigration official, who warns that the Government’s changes will have serious consequences for his country. So they appear to be concerned about it.

RYAN

Well, it’s an unnamed source versus what the Minister said on radio this morning, and he said that…

GILBERT

[Interrupts] It’s not an unnamed source, this is the director of immigration investigations.

RYAN

Well, the Minister made clear on radio this morning in the interview that the Indonesian Government was consulted. Richard there used all of the jargonistic phrases and clichés we’ve heard from Labor over five years, but what this Government is about is action that stops the boats.

Now, we’ve dealt with the flood of people that we had coming under Labor – that’s been stopped. Now we need to stop the tide of people that builds up behind that and pushes that. So we need to stop people using Indonesia as a transit country, where people smugglers’ business models say ‘look, come here and just join the long queue’. Previously, it was ‘come here and get on one of the boats’ because Labor weakened our policies, now they’re trying to form a longer queue. We’re actually working with the region to actually stop the region being used as a waypoint for people seeking immigration outcomes. And despite Richard using all the clichés and phrases that sound good in Canberra, nothing he said there addresses that. It’s all about meaningless phrases and promises that weren’t kept or are unspecific. We’re taking specific action to make sure the successes we’ve had continue over the long-term.

GILBERT

Let’s turn our attention to the visits of world leaders this week. A number of different issues on this but I do want to touch on, specifically, Xi Jinping. Richard Marles, to you. On this issue, what’s Labor’s view on the Free Trade Agreement? I know there have been some concerns about the dispute resolution clause in this, that it might give Chinese companies an avenue to take our businesses, or even Government, to court. What are your thoughts on this generally?

MARLES

Well, the objective of the Free Trade Agreement with China is a really important objective for our economy, and we’ve been very clear about that – it’s something that has been pursued by governments of both persuasions for the last decade. And I myself, as trade minister, was in Beijing last year pursuing a Free Trade Agreement with China. But as always what we need to see is the text – we need to understand exactly what deal has been done here so that we can be certain that this is providing all the benefits that an agreement with China should, and those benefits in terms of increased access into what is the largest market in the world for Australian goods and services. And it is, Kieran, really regrettable that the Government is not showing the Australian people the text of this agreement and doesn’t seem to be planning to show us that text until next year. And obviously we need to be able to scrutinise that [not only] in relation to the clause that you just mentioned, but across the board to make sure that this is an agreement that – is obviously so important to Australia’s future – but is delivering on what it should be able to deliver.

GILBERT

Okay. Well, should the Government expedite that process because clearly it’s better to have strong bipartisanship on this?

RYAN

And there’s a parliamentary process which the text of the agreement will go through. It will go to the Joint Parliamentary Committee on Treaties – there’s a process for that – and then there’s a legislative process to implement the terms of that agreement. So, Richard’s trying to have a bet each way here because he’s got the unions out on his left flank saying how bad it is.

GILBERT

The Kokoda Foundation report says China will never eclipse the US – this is the front page of The Australian today. Richard, what do you think of that suggestion, and the argument made by Paul Dibb and John Lee, the defence experts who wrote it, that Australia’s defence posture shouldn’t be reworked or structured on the basis of a threat from a rising China?

MARLES

Well, I think it’s an interesting assertion which is put forward in the paper, and obviously that kind of commentary is really important in the way in which the Government assesses what we do. I think, though, what is clear here is that Australia’s principle security relationship is with the United States – it has been that for decades, and it will be that for decades to come. But in saying that, we do want to build up a relationship, in a security sense, with China and with the Chinese defence forces. And we’ve been doing that, again, across governments of both persuasions and I think a visit of the Chinese president to Australia was a good thing in relation to that as well – his comments in the Parliament on Monday, I think, were very encouraging.

And obviously the closer the relationship that we can build with the Chinese military, the more we reduce any possible likelihood or potential for any conflict in the future. And that’s obviously a path that America itself is taking, so I think in terms of the way in which Australia acts, this doesn’t change that. It is of course an interesting piece of commentary and important to take into account but we need to see America as our principle security ally. We need to be making sure we do everything we can to build our relationship with China.

GILBERT

Senator Ryan, your reaction to this suggestion that China will never eclipse, and probably, they say, even match the US in the Asia-Pacific?

RYAN

Well, they are respected analysts. I think it is important, sometimes coverage in Australia doesn’t fully explain the gap in capability that does currently exist between the US and virtually every other nation on earth. That gap is still significant. As Richard has outlined, this is a bipartisan issue – the United States has been our principle ally for decades and will be for decades to come, and I can’t see a time when that will change. But the last few days have also shown that we don’t need to choose between friends. We can deepen relationships with our region, and maintain our historic friendships and alliances.

GILBERT

We’ll take a quick break. Back in just a moment and we’ll look at the Victorian election campaign with 10 days to go until election day.

[Commercial break]

This is AM Agenda. With me this morning is Senator Scott Ryan and Labor frontbencher Richard Marles. We’re going to chat about the Victorian election campaign. First though, we’re going to go to our Melbourne bureau chief, Aaron Young. He’s at the Frankston Arts Centre in that marginal seat there of Frankston, and Aaron it looks like, according to the latest internal polling on both sides, that that seat is very much going to be a contest?

AARON YOUNG

It very much is, and it certainly has been a contest thanks to one man, Geoff Shaw, who is now the independent – the man who has brought so much trouble to the Victorian Government over the past four years.

I’m standing in the room, Kieran – this is the very room where both leaders tonight will be speaking to 100 undecided voters and the wider television audience as well for the SKY News-Herald Sun Peoples’ Forum. It doesn’t look like much at the moment, but certainly over the coming hours, our team will be turning this into that function room for tonight’s Peoples’ Forum. As we say, 100 undecided voters.

When we look back four years ago, to the 10th of November back in 2010, there were two very different challengers. There was Ted Baillieu and the incumbent – the Premier at the time – John Brumby. Both very nervous – it was, of course, the first Peoples’ Forum of its type to be held in state politics, and many say it changed everything in that election campaign. For the first time we saw both leaders without their ties. We saw them in a far more relaxed environment – that time it was held at the Burvale Pub in Burwood, which is the very geographical centre of Melbourne. Well now we’re down in Frankston because priorities have changed, as too has the mood and the change of the electorate. As you mentioned, Frankston is very tight but so too is the entire so-called ‘sandbelt’ between here, heading all the way up the bay on the east side of Port Phillip Bay towards the city. So many marginal seats there, including Bentleigh of course – that was a seat which was incredibly tight and eventually to the Liberals, which gave Ted Baillieu the numbers to form government four years ago.

So, as we say, two very different leaders and come 6:30 tonight, it will be Denis Napthine and Daniel Andrews – or Dan Andrews, as he now wants to known – who will be facing 100 undecided voters. The chance for people, of course, to participate and to use Twitter as well – we should mention the hashtag Peoples’ Forum Two – so that people can watch and participate at home. A big event for Victorian politics now with 10 days to go until the state election, Kieran.

GILBERT

Aaron, thank you, we’ll chat to you soon. And Richard Marles, does it look like the negative campaigning, which happens in most political campaigns, is that starting to hurt the Labor Party and Daniel Andrews?

MARLES

Well I think there’s been an awful lot of negative campaigning against Daniel Andrews during this election. But Daniel has been fantastic in keeping a positive frame going forward. He does have a plan for this state in terms of jobs, investing in TAFE, in our education, and also dealing with the chronic issues, in relation to cuts to ambulance, cuts to police. So Daniel has been very clear about looking forward – and positive – no matter what the attacks against him. But I think, at the end, this is still very much a close election. At the end of the day it’s going to be about jobs and cutting services. And in that sense, I don’t think we’re going to see much of Tony Abbott between now and Saturday week, but it doesn’t really matter because at the end of the day Denis Napthine is wearing precisely the same colours. His has been a Government which has been all about walking away from jobs and cutting services in this state and that’s going to be the issue.

GILBERT

Senator Ryan, I alluded to this in my question to Aaron Young before, but it looks like that polling has made that Frankston seat much more of a contest. The Liberal Party’s more optimistic on the four ‘sandbelt’ seats as well?

RYAN

Well, two of the last four elections in Victoria, Kieran, have been decided by one seat. You know, Victoria is always going to be a closely fought election. The challenge is that the Government needs to put its case for re-election, and it’s doing that very well. The real risk in Victoria is that Daniel Andrews wears the same colours as federal Labor, to use Richard’s phrase. He’s made $32 billion in promises but he hasn’t outlined a single cent of where they’re going to come from. So Victorians face, under Dan Andrews, the same sort of risks they faced under the chaos of Gillard and Rudd, and that was confirmed when Labor did deals with The Greens to ensure that Labor preferenced The Greens above others in every Lower House seat across the state, and they advertised that on the weekend.

GILBERT

Is that a real vulnerability for Labor in the closing stages of the campaign? Particularly I guess, Richard Marles, in the context of Andrews saying that he’ll rip up contracts when it comes to the East-West Link – the road project.

MARLES

Look, I think Labor’s economic record in this state has been impeccable. The former Brumby Government had a state government which had a AAA credit rating. And you don’t create jobs by cutting in innovation and by cutting services, and that’s what we have seen in the context of the way in which the Liberals have gone about governing Victoria. We have seen a shedding of jobs across the board.

There’s no economic prosperity associated with that and if you look at the city from which I come, Geelong, you know we have faced enormous difficulty and essentially we’ve seen a state government, which like the Federal Government, has been asleep at the wheel in terms of seeing Geelong through that economic transition. And in the midst of that, the last thing you do is put in place enormous cuts to TAFE. If ever there was a time to be investing in education, or re-education, of people who need employment, it was now. This Government is doing precisely the opposite and it’s very much to Victoria’s economic detriment.

GILBERT

Is the Victorian Government suffering because of some of the unpopular Federal Government measures that have been undertaken as well here?

RYAN

Look, the truth is more money spent on schools, more money spent on hospitals and there’s been a dramatic increase in TAFE expenditure and spending on TAFE programmes under this Coalition Government. The problem with Labor is that they make all these promises, they’re utterly unfunded and Victorians know it’s going to end up in broken promises, increased debt and higher taxes.

That’s the risk that we have under Labor, and they’re just trying to cruise through this election by talking about things that basically aren’t true.

GILBERT

You can accept, though, that some of the federal issues – the unpopular measures out of the Budget – are spilling over?

RYAN

I’ve never seen federal or state issues be decisive on an election at another level of government.

GILBERT

Okay, well what about the dysfunction within the Liberal Government in Victoria – the loss of a first-term leader? Has that played into it?

RYAN

Well, I think it’s fair to say that the challenges around Geoff Shaw and his constant sort of attacks on the parliamentary processes did make it more difficult for Denis Napthine. And that actually makes the achievements of getting things like the East-West tunnel contract signed, of making sure we have increased TAFE expenditure, of having plans for every electorate and every community around the [state] rolled out over the last three months – that actually makes that achievement even more.

What Daniel Andrews is trying to run away from here, are his links with the CFMEU, his deals with The Greens that will ensure Victoria becomes captive to the vested interests of a radical union movement.

GILBERT

Gentlemen, we’re out of time unfortunately, but we’ll chat again ahead of the election next Saturday – Saturday week, in fact. Richard Marles, thank you and Senator Scott Ryan, I appreciate it.

(Ends)