Topics: PNG Supreme Court ruling, Manus Island, polls, deflation, Labor’s carbon tax, climate change, emission reduction targets.

E&OE…

RAF EPSTEIN

Joining me in Melbourne is Mark Dreyfus, the Shadow Attorney General, part of Bill Shorten’s team.

MARK DREYFUS

Good to be with you Raf.

EPSTEIN

And in – oh gosh, I think he is in Canberra, I don’t know – Scott Ryan, is the Liberal Senator for Victoria and Minister for Vocational Education. Scott, good afternoon.

SCOTT RYAN

Thanks Raf, I am in Canberra.

EPSTEIN

(Laughter) Good, it just slipped my mind.

Scott, what is going on with Manus Island? I can see that the ABC is saying that Papua New Guinea wants Australia to make arrangements for those 800 men on the island – some of them are refugees and some of them have had their applications knocked back – if it is closed, do you know what that means?

RYAN

I have seen the press release from Prime Minister O’Neill in Papua New Guinea and I heard Peter Dutton earlier this afternoon. He indicated that, pending advice from PNG, he would have a discussion with the Papua New Guinean Government, which is entirely appropriate. But he also made it clear that no one who got on a boat to come to Australia illegally will come here. And we will take whatever measures necessary to ensure that that commitment we made is delivered.

EPSTEIN

Do you have any idea of what is going to happen to those people? I mean PNG struggled to process the applications and struggled to accommodate anybody who has been assessed as a refugee. What on Earth happens to those people?

RYAN

I think it is fair to give the Minister 24 hours, the Papua New Guinea Prime Minister put out a press release only, I think, a couple of hours ago. And notably in that [press release] he said ‘We must never forget that this policy has stopped many people from losing their lives at sea’ and he said he was proud that Papua New Guinea was able to play an important part in stopping the loss of life that was occurring due to people smuggling.

We have got to remember that this facility was set-up by Labor because they restarted the people smuggling trade and they created this border protection disaster. There wasn’t a problem before Labor came to office, and Peter Dutton, and before him Scott Morrison, have been dealing with it. There were 2000 children in detention, we have got families out of detention. But you cannot solve a problem that Labor created, with 50,000 illegal arrivals on our shores, you can’t solve that overnight.

EPSTEIN

Kevin Rudd set this up in his second phase as Prime Minister, it looked a little ad-hoc then, what on Earth is going to happen?

DREYFUS

It was never meant to be a permanent solution. It was a temporary stop-gap while third country settlement agreements were finalised. What has happened under this incompetent Government, we have had two incompetent ministers now – Morrison and Dutton – nothing has been done with third country arrangements other than paying $55 million to Cambodia to take three asylum seekers. What is Dutton on about? He held a press conference, a matter of a couple of hours ago and said he was in close contact with the Government of Papua New Guinea and didn’t breather one word about the announcement that has just been made by the Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea that Manus Island is to be closed.

EPSTEIN

So your criticism is about management though? You don’t have a different position, you’re not going to let those people come here either?

DREYFUS

We have said very clearly, since the 19th of July 2013, that if you come to Australia by boat you will not be settled in Australia. But that did not mean condemning, in the case of Manus, nearly 1000 men to what has now become nearly indefinite detention under appalling conditions where people have died who need not have died and I am asking: what is this Government doing? What is the Government’s contingency plan? What is Mr Dutton going to do? He has known about this court case since last December, and this outcome was always on the cards.

EPSTEIN

Let’s just have a quick listen to the executive director of Human Rights Watch, he is normally in New York but he is in the country building support for his own organisation. I asked him yesterday if that court ruling in PNG was significant.

(Audio of Kenneth Roth – executive director of Human Rights Watch)

Scott Ryan, what we are doing is illegal in PNG according to Ken Roth.

RYAN

He holds the view that Labor reflected when they were in office, that it doesn’t matter what policies you have domestically, all of these problems are happening because of what is happening overseas. Mark Dreyfus talking about …

(Interrupted)

EPSTEIN

That is not what he said Scott Ryan, he said we were breaching international law.

RYAN

The point is, the first test of competence of an immigration minister is actually controlling the borders and Labor failed at that. And they talk about these programs they had in place, they did nothing about it …

(Interrupted)

DREYFUS

This problem is now, you need to come up with an answer about it now.

RYAN

Until Labor actually apologise for what they did to the people that were the victims of people smugglers, both those who made it here under false pretences and those who didn’t, then they have no credibility on this matter.

EPSTEIN

Scott Ryan, are we breaching international law in PNG? Most people who profess to be professors of international law say that we are.

RYAN

And let’s be honest here Raf, the people who argue that case also believe that international law – in this sense, is not democratically endorsed, the product of various international organisations –overrides Australian domestic law, and it does not. That is a fact. It doesn’t

EPSTEIN

It is not the same thing as saying it overrides Australian domestic law.

RYAN

But they’re making an assertion about what should be the case, but laws in Australia about these matters are made by a democratically elected Parliament, subject to our Constitution. And despite an ongoing series of legal challenges, these laws have stood up to the test.

DREYFUS

This is a decision of the Supreme Court of Papua New Guinea …

RYAN

Exactly.

DREYFUS

… which has ruled that it is unconstitutional and a breach of human rights for the more than 800 men to remain on Manus Island.

EPSTEIN

Maybe when Labor was in power you should have checked the PNG Constitution a little better?

DREYFUS

And I said very clearly …

(Interrupted)

EPSTEIN

You would have been Attorney General wouldn’t you?

DREYFUS

I was …

(Interrupted)

EPSTEIN

When this was set up?

DREYFUS

I was Attorney General at the time that this was set-up.

EPSTEIN

Did you look at the PNG Constitution?

DREYFUS

And we were in deep discussion with the Government of Papua New Guinea. But as I say, this was not intended to be dragging on near permanent outcome that this Government, through inaction, has got us to.

EPSTEIN

The legal point from the court is not about how long it takes to process these people’s claims. The legal point from the Supreme Court was that it is illegal to detain the people in the way that they were detained because they hadn’t committed a crime under PNG law. Did you get that advice when you set this up in July before you lost the election?

DREYFUS

I am not going to say anything about advice that I received as Attorney General , but I am going to try …

(Interrupted)

EPSTEIN

No one raised the red flag that this might not work under PNG law?

DREYFUS

That would be talking about the advice Raf. I am going to talk about the problem that is now faced by both Papua New Guinea and Australia because of this Supreme Court ruling. And the decision now by the Government of Papua New Guinea is that Manus is going to close. We need to hear from the Government, and urgently, what it is that Mr Dutton and the Prime Minister Turnbull are going to do about this.

EPSTEIN

I am sure we will hear about this over the next few days.

Look, just a little bit of breaking news that is happening today, if I can get brief responses, one economic, one about polls. I don’t know if I will get an answer from either of you.

Scott Ryan, we have got the first deflation figure in seven years for the first quarter, a broad range of things: fuel, but also things like fruit, travel, recreation. We have got the cost of living going down in the first quarter of the year. Is that a verdict that the economy is doing poorly?

RYAN

Let’s put the CPI quarterly figure in context. They do get revised and later on there are some reasonable substantive changes to them. At -0.2 it wouldn’t take much of a revision for that to be 0.0 or 0.1. It is also not a significant number in the sense that -0.2 for the quarter is not a huge change. And when you look at the factors – as I understand it – are made up the CPI you do look at things that are outside of domestic control like fuel prices, and I think most people would say that is a good thing.

EPSTEIN

Transport, travel, recreation. I just wonder if it is a verdict on the economy?

RYAN

A drop in fuel prices is in many ways, in parts of the economy, akin to an interest rate cut because it is so broadly spread across the economy. Economic commentators have spoken in the past about the impact that lower oil prices and lower fuel prices can have as an economic stimulus. So, I don’t think it is that significant, it is a quarterly figure, it is subject to revision, and what has driven the figure are things that actually support economic growth.

EPSTEIN

Mark Dreyfus?

DREYFUS

I am with Scott, too early to tell.

EPSTEIN

Too early to tell, okay.

 

A quick poll question, the Essential polling organisation, I guess there are two or three aren’t there? There is Reachtel, Newspoll … The Essential today, Scott Ryan, have Labor’s primary vote, so this is before preferences, at 39 per cent and the Coalition’s at 40 per cent. And they give Labor at 52-48 lead on two-party preferences. So interesting because both on, the two-party figure is not too far from the other polls, but the primary vote is up to 39 per cent. Is the Government in trouble?

RYAN

Look, I haven’t seen that report this afternoon – if that is when it came out – I have been on the program with you before Raf when they have said very different things. Things that people think might make Liberals happy and things people might think make the Labor Party happy.

EPSTEIN

The trend is not your friend Scott Ryan, as they say.

RYAN

I always thought this election was going to be particularly close, most elections are. When you look at what has happened over the last five or 10 years in Australia, as John Howard said, what used to be a 40:40:20 sort of voting population, where 40 per cent were with both sides and 20 per cent were swingers, has become a 30:30:40 sort of voting population. So I think every election, particularly with what we saw in Queensland with Campbell Newman, every election is up for grabs.

EPSTEIN

Mark Dreyfus, are you still the underdog?

DREYFUS

Australians, I think, are increasingly seeing what Labor stands for and it is clear that we have got policies that we are going to take to the election. By contrast we have got a Prime Minister who is dithering. I don’t think we can say who is the underdog and who is not, but the trend for now, for four or five weeks, has shown a real tightening, it is an open contest.

EPSTEIN

We will see if it changes with the Budget next week. Brad has called, Brad go for it:

CALLER

Hi Raf, how are you?

EPSTEIN

Yeah good, go for it.

CALLER

I just wonder (inaudible) and I was listening to your show yesterday, just as a school teacher how do you teach kids (inaudible)about refugees when it is found that 800-odd men are legit (sic) refugees…

EPSTEIN

I think half of them were deemed refugees, but go on.

CALLER

Four hundred people is still a lot of people. And we are not allowing them in the country, how do I teach that to my kids what a refugee is if our country doesn’t allow … and another quick point, because I was listening yesterday and I had my daughter in the car who is 10 and quite cluey and she said ‘well, Dad, if these men are refugees, and they are seeking refuge why aren’t we letting them in?’

EPSTEIN

Why aren’t we letting them in? Quick response, Scott Ryan?

RYAN

We should then focus on the fact that we are taking thousands of Syrian refugees, we have increased our resettlement program and we cannot do that if we have 50,000 people illegally rocking up on our borders.

Nothing will more quickly destroy the consensus in this country on a large immigration program and a very generous humanitarian program than the policies that Labor and the Greens put in place that broke down controls over who comes to this country. That is the single most destructive thing all around the world for support for generous resettlement and refugee programs which I support. I won’t risk that.

EPSTEIN

Mark Dreyfus?

DREYFUS

Brad, you ask a really good question on behalf of the kids you are teaching and your daughter. We have got to stop demonising asylum seekers, we have got to stop demonising refugees, stop using the word illegal and stop trying to make this a matter of partisan contention. I say again, I remain deeply concerned about the fact that the men who are on Manus Island have now been there, in some cases, for now three years. That was never Labor’s intention. It was our intention however, and I stand by this, to adopt a policy that people coming to Australia by boat not settle in Australia. I know that you Brad and others find that very difficult, but we saw that as necessary to stop the …

CALLER

Can I just say a quick point, sorry.

DREYFUS

Of course.

CALLER

In maths class today, and we do mean, median, and mode and all of that (inaudible) we are 45th on the list of settling refugees in Australia, so with our numbers of refugees which come into Australia, the average is quite different when Australia (inaudible) that set of data.

EPSTEIN

I think that is refugees through the UN program as a percentage of population I think, but we will continue. I don’t think this debate is going to go away. First we will get some traffic from Chris Miller. Hi Chris.

(Melbourne traffic update)

EPSTEIN

I think Federal Cabinet is in fact meeting now, but Scott Ryan is with us, he is the Minister for Vocational Education, part of Malcolm Turnbull’s Government. And Mark Dreyfus is with us, part of Bill Shorten’s Opposition, Mark is Shadow Attorney General. He had a climate change role though when Labor was in government. Mark, Labor has announced its broad climate change policies, no particular surprise on the target for emission reduction, but perhaps what is surprising is that you’re kicking into the never-never precisely what sort of carbon price may come in. I don’t think you will actually decide that until two elections from now.

DREYFUS

We think that is appropriate. We think that it is necessary to work through with industry. There is a significant announcement there that we are splitting the emissions trading scheme that we propose to bring in into two. So there will be an emissions trading scheme generally, and a specific emissions trading scheme for the electricity …

EPSTEIN

Isn’t that just because you got your arse kicked on the carbon price, so you’ve gone ‘right, let’s have a renewable energy target for the end of the next decade and worry about a carbon price a long time from now’. Because you got beaten up?

DREYFUS

No, we said we are going to be reintroducing an emissions trading scheme, we have committed to an emissions reduction target of 45 per cent by 2030, which is significantly more ambitious than the one which has been adopted by the Government. And I am very proud of the work that has been done from Opposition by Labor recognising things that we learnt in the two years that we had an emissions trading scheme, 1 July 2012 through to end of June 2014 when it was abolished by the Abbott government, I think that we have got these settings and these proposals right.

EPSTEIN

You have almost got a, what is that bizarre idea that Julia Gillard came up with, the sort of community assembly, ‘we’ll listen to them’, you have an advisory group again of average every day Australians. Why go back down that path?

DREYFUS

I think one needs to tread very carefully in this area, I think it is important to get these settings right, I think consulting is always a good idea and, as I say, the detail that people will now be able to see in what is very real action on climate change is something that I am very proud of. And I am looking forward to campaigning right through the election on our climate change policy, which stands in very stark contrast to the inaction from the Turnbull Government.

EPSTEIN

Scott Ryan do you think climate change is going to be big at the election?

RYAN

Raf, the only thing Labor has learnt to hide is its dishonesty. Australia will actually achieve the climate change targets we have previously committed to by 2020 and we have then committed to 26 to 28 per cent by 2030, which makes us the second biggest cutters per capita in the developed world. We think that is a reasonable commitment on behalf of the country. Per capita it needs to be considered because we have a growing population unlike other parts of the world.

EPSTEIN

But very expensive to get to those targets by 2030, there is a lot more money that you will need to spend.

RYAN

And the truth is that it is better to actually do this as we go along, as we have in the past, so we dedicate resources as necessary. Unlike Labor’s policy, which they are trying to hide the fact that there is going to be an increase in electricity prices, an increase in general prices. I mean, on another radio station, Mark Butler was asked this very question eight or nine times this morning and wouldn’t give an answer, would not give a direct answer.

EPSTEIN

Well, let’s ask Mark Dreyfus. Mark Dreyfus, are power prices going up?

DREYFUS

Electricity prices are falling in relation to increased renewable energy. Tony Abbott’s own handpicked panel confirmed that boosting renewable energy puts downward pressure on prices and at the moment …

EPSTEIN

But that was about renewable energy, not a carbon price.

DREYFUS

Yes, and the emissions trading scheme, as I say, it will be carefully worked through, but unlike the period where we introduced the carbon price when we had savage rises in electricity prices –caused by building new polls and wires , capital investment which had nothing to do with the carbon price – we had that put together, fused together by Tony Abbott and his scare campaign.

RYAN

That wasn’t the case in Victoria, Mark.

DREYFUS

We have got here at the moment, a Government which every Australian can see is not taking real action on climate. It has got Malcolm Turnbull extraordinarily embracing the Abbott policy, which he described when he was in Opposition as fiscal recklessness on a grand scale, and an environmental fig leaf, shameful what Malcolm Turnbull is up to here. It is shameful what the Government is doing, they are paying big polluters to do very little. And big polluters are …

(Interrupted)

RYAN

And you are asking …

(Interrupted)

DREYFUS

… And Scott Ryan knows that emissions are rising.

EPSTEIN

Scott Ryan?

RYAN

And what Mark is saying is ‘I am going to put a tax on electricity generators and that is not going to force up prices …

(Interrupted)

DREYFUS

Here is the scare campaign.

RYAN

… it is an absolute myth to say that the carbon tax did not have an impact on electricity prices. It is basically …

DREYFUS

I didn’t say that.

RYAN

… You said the prices went up because of polls and wires investment.

DREYFUS

They did.

EPSTEIN

That was a substantial part of …

(Interrupted)

RYAN

Much less so in Victoria where people still had power prices rises, and you can go back to your power bills after the carbon tax was eliminated and people can check how much it fell by …

DREYFUS

That’s right, and that is why we had assistance packages for every Australian household.

EPSTEIN

Scott Ryan, the energy suppliers and the Australian Industry Group both say that if you want to get to the targets that you have set for the end of 2030, you are going to have to spend something like 50 times the amount of money you have currently set aside for Direct Action.

RYAN

And one of the things I have learnt, because I remember when people were saying ‘there was no way Australia could achieve its commitments under Kyoto’, is that technological development here is actually the key to reducing human emissions. When you look at the rise in renewable energy, it is actually partly technological and partly the reduction in the cost of things, like solar panels and the roll-out of them. The idea that you are going to whack on a tax that will reduce dramatically emissions, but not do it through a price signal, and an emissions trading scheme is only a floating tax, is just mathematically not possible.

EPSTEIN

Okay.

RYAN

We will do it like everyone has done, through environmental measures mostly, which is to use technology as it becomes available. That will ensure the costs of the measures we take are affordable.

EPSTEIN

I will be fascinated to see if climate change policy actually takes a central role or not. But Scott Ryan, Minister for Vocational Education, Mark Dreyfus, Shadow Attorney General, thank you to you both.

DREYFUS

Thanks Raf, thanks Scott.

RYAN

Thanks Mark, thanks Raf.

(ENDS)